Thursday, May 23, 2013

House Money Breaks the Mold



            As most of you know, I wear two hats in the gaming analysis world.  There are some that might see my two roles as being opposed to each other.  Quite frankly, at first, so did I.  Over the years, however, I realize that they are more complementary than anything else.  On one hand, I analyze games already created and write about them, with the goal being to educate the Player to become the best possible Player he can be.  On the other, I help invent games.  Some may think I do this using my knowledge of how Players act to create games designed to trip them up.  This simply is not the case.  Even when working with inventors, I do my best to steer the game in a direction that offers the highest paybacks possible.

            Let me be clear.  Games are created with a house edge.  If you consider that to be 'rigged', then there isn't much more to discuss.  No casino is going to purposefully put a game on the floor that has a Player edge.  The one and only exception, to the best of my knowledge, is video poker, where there still remains some full-pay machines that pay over 100%.  However, as most of these are at too low of a denomination to really do harm to the casino, they are content to let the very few profit at the expense of the overwhelming majority. 

            In the last several years, I have the pleasure of helping to develop Mississippi Stud and Ultimate Texas Hold'em.  These two games boast paybacks in the mid to high 98% range and up.  Part of the reason they are able to do this is because they require intricate strategy in order to achieve these theoretical paybacks.  This is also one of the reasons why video poker can offer such high paybacks.  To achieve these paybacks require that a Player play using a robust strategy that most Players do not bother to learn.  Slot machines in contrast offer absolutely no strategy.  As a result, the casinos cannot rely on human error for any part of their profits and they must offer lower paybacks.

            The same is true of sidebets for table games.  For the most part, it has pained me when I see the paybacks on sidebets.  It is not uncommon for them to be the mid 80% to low 90% range.  Some, go even lower into the high 70's.  Some sidebets, especially Progressives, offer huge payouts for the Player and so Players are willing to trade this low payback for the remote chance of the life-changing payout.  Like slot machines, casinos must offer these lower paybacks because the sidebets offer no strategy and they cannot rely on any human error to drive profits.  The problem with attempting to offer sidebets with strategy is that the strategy almost assuredly works against the basic strategy of the underlying game.  This is a 'no-no' because the combined payback will now be lower than the two separate paybacks AND it can require the Player to learn some new hybrid strategy that may be more trouble than it is worth.

            Less than a year ago, one sidebet broke this model completely.  I've written about it before, and I have to admit that it is the only sidebet that actually gets me excited.  On the one hand, it is definitely a sidebet.  On the other, it is almost an entirely new game within a game.  Yet, if a Player chooses not to play it, it does not impact the base game.  Quite frankly, even if he does choose to play it, it doesn't affect the base game.  But, it does require learning a strategy for the sidebet.  The game is called House Money , and it is a sidebet to blackjack.

            The game is really quite simple.  If you make the House Money sidebet, you will get paid if the first two cards you are dealt for blackjack are a Suited AK, a 2-Card Straight Flush, a Pair or a Straight.  This works out to be about 21.5% of the time.  The most common payouts are 9,4,3,1 respectively (although there are multiple paytables).   Now, the fun begins.  After you are paid for your sidebet, you have the option to take all of your winnings from your sidebet (which includes the original sidebet wager) and you can add it to your base blackjack wager.  This is AFTER you have seen your two cards and AFTER you have seen the Dealer's upcard.   So, if you're dealt a 10-J suited, you will win 4 to 1 for your sidebet.  Assuming you wagered $5, you will now have the right to take the entire $25 (the $20 you won plus the $5 sidebet wager) and add it to your base blackjack wager. 

            In the case of the 10-J you would ALWAYS want to do this.  The Dealer will check for blackjack prior to you making this additional wager, so you are not risking your winnings if the Dealer has blackjack.  Imagine have a $5 wager on the base game and $5 on the sidebet when dealt this hand.  Dealer turns a 7 up and then flips over a 10.  Your $5 sidebet becomes $25, which turns your base wager into a $30 wager.   When you win this, you just won $50 for being dealt a suited 10-J and winning the blackjack hand.

            One strange fact about House Money is that the payback of the sidebet actually goes UP with more decks.  This is because some of the winning hand are more frequent with more decks.  With 6 or 8 decks, House Money pays 97+% and it makes absolutely NO IMPACT to the base game of blackjack.   That said, it is imperative that you choose to let your winnings ride (i.e. cap your wager) at the right times AND that you play proper blackjack strategy.  If you are dealt a 5-6 against a 7 and choose not to cap your wager OR cap your wager but then 'chicken out' and not Double Down (which requires doubling the ENTIRE wager), then you will not achieve the 97+% payback.



            Below is a matrix that shows the proper strategy for House Money for 6 and 8 deck shoes when the Dealer hits a soft 17.  There are some minor modifications if you are playing with less shoes or if the Dealer sticks on all 17s.  As for basic blackjack strategy, you can find that almost anywhere on the internet or in a book on blackjack.


Hand
Dealer Upcard
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
A
A-2
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
2-3
N
N
N
N
Y
N
N
N
N
N
3-4
N
N
N
N
Y
N
N
N
N
N
4-5
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
5-6
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
6-7
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
7-8
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
8-9
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
9-10
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
10-J/J-Q/Q-K
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
K-A
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
2-2
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
3-3
N
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
N
4-4
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
5-5
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
6-6
N
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
N
7-7
N
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
N
8-8
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
9-9
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
10-10/JJ/QQ/KK
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
A-A
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y - Cap the wager                   N - Take the winnings

            House Money can now be found in Las Vegas at the following casinos - The Cannery, Fiesta Las Vegas, Green Valley Ranch, Jerry's Nugget, Monte Carlo, Palace Station, The Palazzo, Santa Fe Las Vegas, Sunset Station, Texas Station and The Venetian.
            

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