A Game Changer?

            For more than 20 years, my father and I have implored our readers to kick the slot habit.  The biggest reason for this is twofold.  First, the paybacks on slots are just too low.  If I recall correctly, the State of Nevada reported that the average payback on a slot machine last year was in the 92% range.  You just don't stand much of a chance.  The second reason is that you have no clue what the payback is of any given machine.  So, even though 92% is an average and there might be some games paying even as high at 98% (not very likely), you have absolutely NO WAY of knowing which machine is doing this.  For the moment, I'll leave off that playing a game with absolutely no strategy is not one that I find very appealing to spend my time at.

            Well, this past week at the Global Gaming Expo, I had a conversation with the founder of a company who appears to be trying to change some of these problems with slots.  I find his attempts extremely noble.  I'm not necessarily convinced that the casinos are going to support what he is suggesting - but time will tell.

            The company trying to revolutionize the slot industry is called "Pharos Gaming" out of New York City.  The gentleman I spoke to was Frank Abramopoulos and he is a Director there.  The concept is rather simple.  Every one of their "Open Label" machines is given a unique digital code that is on the screen.  A Player can then access a 'app' on his smartphone and enter this code.  This app will return to the Player significant information about the slot machines.  Most importantly, it will tell the Player the payback of the slot machine.  As the company's slot machines are all single-machine Progressives, it will use the current size of the jackpot to calculate the precise theoretical payback of the machine. 

            With this single concept, Pharos Gaming has eliminated at least one of the basic problems with slot machines.  Any player can now know the payback of a machine instantaneously.   This is certainly progress.  But, even if you know the payback of a game, I don't recommend that you start playing games at 92%.  However, because Pharos Gaming's Open Label machines are stand alone progressives, the true payback of the machine to a single Player is fully dependent on the size of that jackpot at any point in time. 

            So, in theory, a Player can walk up to a bank of machines, punch in each of the special codes and then only play the game that shows a current payback of over 100%.  This has been going on in the video poker world for years.  The only difference is that for video poker, you don't really need a smart phone, you just need to remember the payback of a few base paytables and learn how to approximate the current payback based on a simple formula (I'll cover this again in a future column).  But, progress is progress.

            Explaining the math behind Progressives has always been a tricky proposition.  I have worked on many sidebets for table games that utilize Progressives and I've been amazed at how few in the industry fully understand how it works.  I won't go through the details here, but the short version is that you essentially have two paybacks.  One is the long-term payback which is the one the casino is worried about.  The other is the specific payback at any point in time that the Player should be focused on.  In the end, all the people who play on the Progressive but don't win it are playing below the long-term payback and the person who finally wins the Progressive is playing above it - IF the jackpot grows to be larger than average (which will happen roughly half the time).

            In the case of Open Label, the Players that are oblivious to the feature that allows you to check the payback are essentially feeding the machine so that those that are 'in the know' can come along when the game goes positive and win the jackpot.  This works so long as you have the two classes of Players - oblivious and in the know.  If EVERY Player who ever plays these games became an 'in the know' player, the model would fall apart.  NO ONE would ever play the slot when the jackpot is near the reset value, as the machine would probably be playing at 92% or less.

            So, how does this entire system differ from video poker and its progressives?  From what Frank told me, the Progressives on their open label add a large amount of each wager to the jackpot (he didn't specify specifically how much).  Mathematically, this can increase the likelihood that the game will go positive - assuming the hit frequency of the jackpot is low enough.  The bad news is that the only way to accomplish this is for the base payback at reset to be fairly low.  This requires that they continue to get those oblivious players even while they are marketing towards the more knowledgeable ones.

            In the case of video poker, the payback at reset is considerably higher than its slot machine counterpart and the amount of money added for each wager to the jackpot is relatively small.  Thus, video poker machines do not often get much above 100% (if at all) unless the base game is very close to 100%.  At the same time, this means that the Player who doesn't hit the jackpot is not giving up quite as much to the one Player who does.

            I tip my cap to what Pharos Gaming is trying to accomplish.  Any means by which Players can gain more information about the game they want to play is a good thing.  Also, there is some merit (and profit) in chasing games with paybacks over 100%.  However, a slot is still a slot and your chances of hitting that jackpot will be based 100% on luck.  With video poker, an Expert Player can gain advantage over other Players by modifying his strategy as the jackpot goes up and increase his chances of winning it.

            Despite this change, I still implore you all to kick the slot habit and try video poker instead.  To help you along this path and to celebrate our arrival in Las Vegas, we're offering up some specials!  You can order any or all of our top video poker titles for just $6.95 each - Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas, Video Poker: America's National Game of Chance or Winning Strategies for Video Poker.  Send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.  All prices include shipping and handling.

The Next Big Game

            Part 2 of my preview of table games at the 2011 Global Gaming Expo (G2E) will focus on two games that I did the math on.  Both of the games come from Shuffle Master and both with also be on display at their booth this year.   From what I understand, the 'live' table half of their booth will contain ONLY brand new games.  Up this week, Ultimate Three Card Poker and San Lo Poker.

Ultimate Three Card Poker

            If you only take a quick look, you may think this is just Three Card Poker.  If you look closely, you'll see a variety of twists have been added in.  The betting structure if vastly different.  To begin play, the Player must make an Ante AND Blind wager (equal aize).  The Player and the Dealer will each get their three cards, but now one of the Dealer's cards is turned face up.  This is a lot of information given it is just a 3-card hand.  As in the original Three Card Poker, the Player may now either Fold (surrendering BOTH his initial wagers) or make a Play bet.  If he has a Pair or Better, he may make a Play bet of 3x his Ante. 

            Qualifying still exists in Ultimate Three Card Poker, but the rules are a bit different.  If the Dealer does not have at least a Queen High or Better, the Ante pushes and all other wagers stay in action.  If the Dealer has a Queen High or Better, then all wagers are in action.  If the Player beats the Dealer, his Ante and Play win even money (unless the Dealer did not qualify in which case the Ante pushes).  The Blind will push if the Player beats the Dealer with less than a Flush and will win odds if he wins with a Flush or better.

            The critical thing to know about Ultimate Three Card Strategy is FORGET Q-6-4. Knowing one of the Dealer's cards make a whole lot of difference in what we Play vs. Fold.   I'll cover the detailed strategy at a later date, but I can tell you that Ultimate Three Card Poker affords the Player a strong 98.81%.  It will, however, require that you learn a strategy more complex than Q-6-4, but it is one that you can master easily.

San Lo Poker

            The first time I saw Pai Gow Poker, I thought it was some sort of high roller game, requiring a large bankroll.  When I found out more about it, it turns out it is likely the slowest game in the casino - at least from a bankroll perspective.  Around 40% of the hands end in a push with the Player winning 1 hand and the Dealer winning one hand.

            If you want to eliminate this condition, split the cards into 3 separate hands instead of 2 and require the Player to win 2 out of 3 hands to win.  Now, there is no such thing as a push.  To keep things more exciting, deal only 6 cards instead of 7 and you have San Lo Poker.  You can't get much easier than this.  The Player makes a single wager and is dealt 6 cards.  He must break it down into a 3-Card Hand, a 2-Card Hand and a 1-Card Hand (also called High, Mid and Low hands).  As in Pai Gow, the High Hand must outrank the Mid Hand which must outrank the Low Hand.

            The Dealer will also be dealt 6 cards and break his hand down according to the House Rules (which I helped develop).   As these rules are fairly complex, San Lo is played on tables with Shuffle Master's i-verify which has card recognition software built-in and will tell the Dealer how to set the cards.  A Player may opt to have his hand set the same way and can ask the Dealer for assistance to do this.

            The human playable strategy is still being developed, but at this point, I'm fairly certain that to maximize the payback, the Player does NOT always want to mimic the House Rules.  With a goal of winning two out of three, sometimes it pays to sacrifice one to help win the other two. 

            The payback of San Lo is just under 99% but there is no messy commission to deal with.  I'll cover this game in more detail in the coming weeks.  In the meantime, I suggest you stop by the Shuffle Master booth and check this one out.  It's an exciting twist that adds a bit more thinking to the classic Pai Gow Poker game.

            If you make it to the G2E this year, please feel free to drop me a line (ElliotFrome@gamingtoday.com) if you see any other table games along with any comments you may have.  I'll be wandering around the show floor for most of the three days, checking out the next big game!

Coming Soon to a Casino Near You?

           Every inventor thinks their new game is going to be a sure-fire hit.  It's taken Three Card Poker about 15 years to get to 1500 or so tables.  Everyone else is sure they can do it in 2 to 3 years.  So what, if so far, no other game has even come close.  I believe the record for fastest game to 100 tables belongs to Ultimate Texas Hold'em and that took just over a year.

            So, in reality, I can't say with any certainty that any of the games I'm going to discuss today will make it to a casino any time soon.  They will, however, be on display at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) next week, at the Shuffle Master booth.  I didn't work on these games, so I can't give much insight into the strategy or the math (yet).  If you're going to the show this year, make sure to check these games out.  Next week, for the G2E edition, I'll review a couple of games I did the math on and be able to go more in depth on each.

Cincinnati 7 Card Stud

The base game is a simple game going head-to-head against the Dealer.  You make an Ante and Blind wager.  You get to look at the first 6 cards of what will eventually be a 7-card hand.  After reviewing your 6-cards, you can Fold or Play 1x or 2x your Ante.  The Dealer reveals his 7-cards and you get to see your 7th card.  If the Dealer beats you (best 5 out of 7 cards), you lose all your wagers.  If you beat the Dealer, the Ante and Play pay even money and the Blind pays according to the paytable.  There is also a bonus sidebet that pays if your 7-card hand is Three of a Kind or better.

The twist in Cincinnati 7 is the second optional sidebet.  Here, you are playing against all the other Players as well.  Top hand takes the enitre pot - as long as it at least a Two Pair or Better.   The Dealer participates just like every other Player - including putting up a wager each hand.  If nobody has Two Pair or better, all the wagers carry over to the next round.  Obviously, you can't jump into the middle of a pot.  If you skip a round, you're out until someone wins the pot.  Get a mini hot streak and you can increase your bankroll quickly.  It should also be noted that this sidebet has NO house advantage.  You're playing true odds against everyone.

Six-Card Poker

Another relatively simple to understand game against the Dealer.  Player makes an Ante Wager and is dealt 6 cards.  The Dealer is dealt 6 cards as well and turns over three of them, face up.  Player can now Fold or Play, making another wager equal to the Ante.  The Dealer reveals the rest of his hand.  If the Dealer does not have an A-K or better, the Ante pushes and the Play wager is won or lost depending on who has the best hand (best 5 out of 6 cards).  If the Dealer does have an A-K or better, then both Ante and Play wagers are won or lost depending on who has the best hand.

There is also an Aces Up sidebet that pays if the Player's hand is a Pair of Aces or better.  This sidebet pays even if the Player folds.  Yes, you will Fold with a Pair of Aces if the Dealer's three upcards are Three of a Kind.

Money Market

This one is a bit more complex and a little reminiscent of Mississippi Stud.  To begin Play, you make an Ante Wager and get 4 cards.  You must now either Fold or discard 1 card AND make a wager of 1-4x your Ante.  The Dealer will now expose the 1st of 3 community cards.  You must now either Fold or make a wager of 1-3x your Ante.  Dealer will expose the 2nd of 3 community cards and you will either Fold or make a wager 1-2x your Ante.

The Dealer will expose the final community card and then expose his 3 cards.  Best 5 out of 6 cards wins.  The Ante will pay according to the paytable.  All other wagers pay even money.

The betting structure on this one means you'll be wagering at least 4 units if you stay in until the end and might wager as much 10 units.  Unlike Mississippi Stud, you might have a likely winner, but you will rarely have a guaranteed winner.

There is also a one-way bad beat sidebet.  If you lose with a Pair of Jacks or Better, you win this sidebet.  This wager stays in action even if you Fold your base wager.

If you make it to the show and get to check out these games, feel free to let me know your thoughts about any or all of them.  You can reach me at elliotfrome@gamingtoday.com or on my blog at gambatria.blogspot.com.

Total Opposites: Slots and ATMs

I’m writing this article from my new place in Las Vegas! I’ve got boxes everywhere and can’t find half of my stuff, but none of that will deter me from writing my weekly column.

I figure my new beginning here in Las Vegas is a perfect idea for a topic. What should you do when you’re just beginning to go to the casino?

I know one thing you shouldn’t do – play the slot machines. No game requires less knowledge than slots, so that’s why a lot of beginners wind up there. Few, if any, games give you less of a chance to win.

That’s why I think a good place to begin is with video poker. No, video poker is NOT a slot machine. It may look a little like a slot machine, but just because it has a computer screen and some buttons doesn’t make it a slot machine.

Perhaps we should consider ATM machines to be slots as well?

Video poker machines work on a totally different premise than slots. Video poker machines use random number generators to simulate dealing actual playing cards. Slot machines use random number generators to simulate nothing – they simply use it to pick which symbols will appear, but none of it is based on any actual anything.

You see 20 different symbols but that doesn’t mean they will appear with equal frequency. With video poker, you have 52 cards and each one should appear with equal probability.

It is this difference that makes all the difference. Because we know that a video poker machine simulates an actual deck of cards, we can create computer programs and math models to tell us absolutely everything about the machine.

Of course, we don’t know exactly which card will show up when, but we use probabilities to tell us the likelihood of any given card and, in turn, any given hand from showing up. It is from this we are able to develop actual strategies for which cards to hold and which cards to discard.

To start with, we know there are "only" 2,598,960 possible initial 5-card deals from a standard 52-card deck. Each one of these combinations has an equal likelihood of being dealt to the player. For each of these, we know there are 32 different ways to play the hand, ranging from discarding no cards to discarding them all.

Obviously, many of these ways would make little sense. If you are dealt three 6’s, a 10 and a 2, you’re not going to discard the 6’s. But, to be absolutely sure, our computer program takes a look at all 32 ways and determines which is the best way to play the hand.

The value it assigns to each is called the "expected value" or EV for short. The EV is calculated by looking at every possible draw that can occur given which cards were initially dealt and which ones were held.

The program sums up the payouts for each of these hands and divides by the total number of draws. We then look at the expected value for each of the 32 possible draws. Whichever has the highest EV is the proper way to play that hand.

By looking at the results of all 2.6 million hands, we are able to summarize the strategy into what is called a strategy table. This is what a player must learn in order to play each hand correctly.

As some of you are reading this, you may think this all sounds very complicated and not very beginnerish. But, it really is far less complex than it sounds. Most of the hard work is done by people like me.

Your part is to learn the strategy table and to use the information from it to play each hand. About 75% of the hands will be fairly obvious and the remaining 25% may take some memorization to get correct.

I suppose the alternative is to just keep playing slots. As I questioned earlier, if you think video poker is slots, you might as well consider a slot machine to be an ATM – even if they are complete opposites. The ATM gives you your money and the slot machines take it away!

Deja Vu All Over Again!

            How many times does a person move from northern New Jersey to Las Vegas in a lifetime?

            It was the summer of 1985 and the plans had been in the works for months.  My parents called me in my dorm one night to tell me that they’ve decided they were retiring to Las Vegas that summer.  At the time, they thought that I might transfer to UNLV or one of the UC schools.  But, having made many friends and in the middle of pursuing my degree, transferring just didn’t seem prudent.  I decided that I would stay at SUNY@Albany. 

            When I got home for summer break, I found much of our house already packed up.  Because they were moving across country, I convinced my parents to allow me to live off campus for my final two years, figuring I would need a place to stay at times when the dorms were closed.  In June, we took a trip up to Albany to set up my new room with much of my furniture from my room at home.  In early August, we began the 10-day drive across country.  We went thru Wilkes-Barre, Toledo, Chicago, St. Louis, Tulsa, Amarillo, Albuquerque, Flagstaff and Kingman before arriving in Las Vegas. 

            Once we arrived, I spent an additional two to three weeks in Las Vegas before flying back to New York to get ready for school.  For the next two years, Las Vegas was essentially my home.  For the following ten years or so, I would visit 2-3 times a year.  My parents had an incredible ‘retirement’ in Las Vegas.  Well, maybe retirement isn’t the right word.  My father would go on to become the ‘godfather’ of video poker and change the casino floor forever with his work on games like Three Card Poker, Let It Ride, Caribbean Stud and Spanish 21.

            It is now the summer of 2011, 26 years later.  To quote Yogi Berra – it’s déjà vu all over again.  My wife and I have spent the last 6 months staging our house and packing up our stuff in anticipation of our move to Las Vegas.  We promised that once my eldest son was in college that we would head out of the New York area.  After researching countless cities, we decided that Las Vegas had the most to offer us.  Most of our friends think we’re going because of my profession.  There are benefits there as well.  The ability to see games in person will certainly help me write about games and develop new games.  But, the primary reasons dealt with the quality of life that Las Vegas affords us.

            As I write this column, we are 2-3 days away from the ‘hurricane of the century’ hitting us almost directly.  Of course, it is expected to come in as a Category 1 hurricane, so what we will endure will be seem like a light rain compared to what those in New Orleans dealt with a few years ago.  I’m likely to see more rain this weekend than I will the next 2-3 years in the Las Vegas valley.  If this wasn’t bad enough, we actually had an earthquake here too this past week.  I personally didn’t feel a thing, but about an hour before it hit, we were at the top of the Empire State Building, where I am told it WAS felt.  I can’t really say that I won’t deal with the same in Las Vegas.  I was there in 1992 when a significant earthquake hit between Los Angeles and Las Vegas and felt my parent’s apartment get shaken up quite a bit.

            Several months ago, I announced that I was changing the name of Compu-Flyers to Gambatria.  I knew then, that that was the beginning of a good deal of change in our lives.  In about 2-3 weeks when we arrive in Las Vegas, the end phase of that change will begin.  Compu-Flyers, now known as Gambatria will return to Las Vegas after a 13-year hiatus.  From a base of operations in Las Vegas, I hope to be able to  write about more up and coming games and to write in more detail about what I see going on in the casinos.

            I hope that Las Vegas will be as good to my family as it was to my parents.  I hope that I can be as good for Las Vegas as my father was. 

Don't Try These in the Casino!

            We are all familiar with the phrase that “nothing is certain but death and taxes.”  This quote is quite important to the world of gambling.  As I discussed in last week’s column, even when the Player has an advantage over the casino in a particular game, it does NOT mean that he will always walk away a winner.  In similar fashion, not every bad gambling idea leads to an immediate loss.  Even if you choose to hit a 20 while playing blackjack, every so often you WILL hit an Ace and it will help you win when you would otherwise lose (well technically it can only help you push when you would have lost or win when you would have pushed).  But, the bottom line is, even if it works out once in a while – it still doesn’t make it a good idea.

            This week, I’m going to look at a few “common” bad ideas that you will see when you walk into a casino.

1.  Splitting 10’s into a bust card

            The Dealer has a 4, 5 or 6 up and you’ve got a pair of 10’s.  The dealer is going to bust anyhow, so why not split up your 10’s and draw two more 10’s and crush the house.  Well, first of all, if you split the first two 10’s and you draw two more, you’d split again!  If it’s a good idea the first time, it must be a good idea the 2^nd time too! 

            What makes this one so dangerous is that in the end, it IS a winning proposition.  The problem is, relative to just holding the 20, it is a TERRIBLE decision.  If you were dealt 100,000 Pair of 10’s (against a 6) and were to just stick as you are supposed to, you would win 67,600 units.  This means you win the hand almost 84% of the time.  If you decide to get split happy and just keep splitting 10’s, you’ll win a total of about 30,700 units or less than half as much – all while risking more than 3 times as much money.  So, it might feel the good the once in a while when the Dealer busts and you win 3 or 4 hands at once.  But when the Dealer winds up with a 17, 18 or 19 and you realize you just below a good hand for 2 or 3 or 4 lousy ones, the euphoria will quickly disappear.  No matter how you slice it, your bankroll will suffer in the long run.

2.  Playing a Jack High hand in Three Card Poker

            Several years ago, I was sitting out a Three Card Poker table when a woman told another Player that generally she plays only a Queen High, but once in a while you can beat the Dealer with a Jack High hand.  Actually, NO, you can’t.  If you have a Jack high hand, the only way you ‘win’ is if the Dealer does not Qualify.   In this case, your Play wager will push and your Ante wager will win.  This will happen 5,277 of the 18,424 possible Dealer hands.  You will be wagering 2 units in the hopes of winning one and it will occur far less than 30% of the time.

            With 18,424 possible Dealer hands, if you fold, you will lose 18,424 units.  If you Play, you will risk 36,848 units and win back only 15,831 for a net loss of just over 21,000 units.  It may be painful to Fold and if you do Fold, you will NEVER get paid any ‘winners’ for a Jack High hand, but your bankroll WILL thank you because it will last that much longer.

3.   Betting 4x only on Pairs when Playing Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH)

            Proper strategy for UTH calls for betting 4x on a significant number of hands.  The strategy DOES include Pairs of 3’s or better, but also includes any hand with an Ace and a variety of Suited and Unsuited Hands with a Jack or better (full full list, go to my website www.gambatria.com).  I’ve heard of Players playing properly while Dealers tell them they are playing too aggressively.   The payback of UTH is 99.25% when you use Expert Strategy.  If you choose to bet 4x ONLY when you are dealt a Pair of 3’s or better, the payback goes down about 3% to 96.25%.  Put another way, the house advantage increases 400%!

            One could say that casino games are developed with these types of ‘traps’.  But the reality is that they are only traps if you fall into them.  The proper strategy is readily found for virtually every casino game.  You can either choose to learn them or follow your own bad idea. 

            Check out my website at www.gambatria.com for tips on how to play many table games.

Taking the Mystery Out of the Machine!

            I get a daily e-newsletter from the American Gaming Association.  This past week, while leafing through it, a column about debunking the myths of the slot machine caught my attention.  I clicked on the full story and wound up at this PDF:

http://www.americangaming.org/files/aga/uploads/docs/taking_the_mystery_out_of_the_machine_brochure_final.pdf

            My father and I have desperately tried to get people to break the slot habit for more than 2 decades, so I was quite interested to see what myths they were referring to.  Obviously, you don’t put together a flyer like this unless you are hoping to attract people to playing slots.

           

            Ironically, while I doubt it was what was intended, I could not have put together a better flyer myself.  I agree with virtually everything on it, and I think it does a wonderful job of telling people why you should NEVER PLAY SLOTS!

Here are some points on the flyer:

Players can determine a machine’s odds by counting the symbols on each reel.

False.  Because multiple numbers generated by the RNG can correspond to the same symbol on

a reel, there are many more number combinations possible than are visible to the eye. Even though there may be only 15 symbols on a reel, there can be thousands of virtual stops.

            I couldn’t possibly add to the above statement.  What you see is NOT what you get with slots.  With Video Poker, what you see is EXACTLY what you get.

88-98: The overall percentage that a machine will return to players in the long run. For every $100 wagered, players might lose approximately $2 to $12 over time.

            88%???  That’s about 7 points below what ANY video poker pays.  But, that’s not really the main point.  The real point here is that if you had every slot machine in the world available to you, you would have NO WAY of knowing which is 88% and which is 98%.  Put a video poker machine in front of me, show me the paytable and I’ll tell you the payback with absolute certainty.

            And here is the scariest fact on the flyer:

59: The percentage of Americans who consider slot machines their favorite casino game

            Really? 59%???  No wonder they keep putting up billion dollar casinos!  Please folks, it is time to break the slot habit and keep more of your own money.  Play video poker.  Play table games.  Don’t play slots!