There is Such a Thing as a Free Breakfast!

             Last Friday morning, my wife and I went to see one of the first showings of The Hunger Games at the Red Rock Station.  She had read the book a couple of months ago and has been very excited about the movie coming out.  I can't remember the last time we went to see a movie on opening day.  Maybe on the Sunday of opening weekend, but at 9:30 a.m. show on Friday?  We got there by about 8:30 a.m. to make sure we got tickets.  Fortunately, the 6 people ahead of us didn't buy them all and try to scalp them!  So, by 8:31 a.m. we had our tickets and now had tome to go get some breakfast.

            We walked over to the buffet and found out that if you have one of their Boarding Pass frequent Player cards, they'll take $3 off the cost.  I didn't have mine on me, but I knew I had one, so we walked over to the Customer Service area, got a new card and saved our $6.  While we were getting our new cards, I noticed a promotion that they were running today.  If you earn 300 points, you get a free box of Girl Scout Cookies.  Limit 2 per person and they DON'T take any of your points for the box of cookies.  If we were looking for a place to play, this might have swayed us to stay - all other things being equal.  We usually buy Girl Scout Cookies every year.  They cost about $4 per box, so there is some real value to us.  If we were diabetic, or I found they only have the one variety of cookies we don't like, then the value of this promotion has to be discounted from the $4 price.

            I'm a firm believer in taking advantage of any/all promotions that the casinos want to throw at the Player.  But, you have to be smart about deciding the value that each has to you.  If your local supermarket runs a half-price sale on cold breakfast cereal, but you like oatmeal in the morning, the sale has little value to you.  If you're the type of person who is going to stock up anyhow - just in case - well, you're going to be doing the casino a big favor by chasing everything. 

            After the movie was over, we stopped at the Rampart Casino on our way home.  It is completely on the way to our place.  They are running a promotion that gives me $10 in free slot play - which of course, includes video poker as the casinos continue to erroneously equate the two.  The rule is you have to play the full $10, but you get to keep any of the return.  I sat down at a nickel Bonus Poker machine and played max-coin.  40 hands later, the machine said $12 and I left.  It took about 5-10 minutes.  Am I that hard up for $12?  Certainly not.  But for 5 minutes of my time, the Rampart picked up the tab for breakfast for me and my wife!  If I had sat down for an hour and played their short-pay machines and lost the $10 AND another $20, I would've played right into the casinos hands.

            These are the little benefits the casinos give to Players to try to bring them into the casino.  They'll give you a discount on meals.  They'll give you some free play.  It is no different than what the supermarkets do.  They put milk on sale and hope you'll pay full price for bread, pasta and cheese.  No one has ever complained about the supermarkets doing it, so no one should be surprised that the casinos do it as well.

            Just like the supermarkets, the casinos now give you points when you play.  I've heard some Players voice concern that the casinos use your Rewards card in less savory ways.   Some are worried that the casino will have you win less often if you use your card because they are in essence paying you to play.  From a computer perspective, this is certainly possible.   But, do people really believe that the casino will cheat (aka. break the law) to not give the 1/4% back to the Player that they are telling the Player they can have.  Caesar's Entertainment (formerly known as Bally's and Harrah's) has a market cap of over $1.5 BILLION.  I don't think they are going to risk that type of money so that they can cheat some Player out of his $5 cashback!

            The lesson for today is get the Rewards card.  Get everyone you can.  Keep a little box of them with you when you head out to the casinos.  When you play in a casino, ALWAYS use your card.  That said, be smart when determining the value of the rewards when you decide where to play.  Are you better off playing at a casino that gives 50% more rewards, but has lower paybacks?  If there is a promotion running that allows you to get a free meal at a steakhouse, but you're a vegetarian, it has no value.  If it is a steakhouse you love to eat at, then it is worth its face value. 

            Especially for video poker players who are (hopefully) playing at 99% paybacks and higher, taking that extra 1/4% - 1/2% from the casino can put you very close to an even game.  It will certainly cut the house advantage down considerably and your bankroll will certainly notice.

Back to Video Poker

            I've spent 3 out of the last 4 weeks discussing Soft Hands in the games of blackjack, Spanish 21 and Blackjack Switch.  I did this for two reasons.  The first is that it is nice to write about something other than video poker once in a while.  The second is that it is frequently easier to illustrate important concepts by using games with more straightforward differences.  If you read my column this past month, you probably can understand why you don't use the same strategy for Soft Hands for these different games.  While they may be all blackjack based games, the differences created by removing the 10's (Spanish 21) and by having a Dealer Bust of 22 (Blackjack Switch) pushing against Player hands change the math, which in turn changes our strategy.

            One thing that these games have in common, for the most part, is the payouts.  A win is a win and you get paid even money.  Spanish 21 has its bonus hands and its Charlie payouts (which also effects strategy), but you don't have to worry about looking for a paytable to know what to do.  You just have to know which game you are playing.  I must admit that a very, very long time ago, I sat down at a Spanish 21 table not realizing for about 30 minutes that I wasn't playing regular blackjack!  When it finally hit me, I'm sure I turned a nice shade of red, something I don't do very often.

            The bottom line is that from my little detour on blackjack we learn that rule changes can and will change our strategy.  What we have to learn directly from video poker is that paytable changes can do the same thing.  One could argue that there really are no rule variations across virtually all video poker machines.  You are dealt 5 cards.  You decide which ones you want to replace.  You draw that many cards.  Games like Multi-Strike and some of the attempts at a 7-Card Stud game do manage to cross the rule line, in my opinion.  In the gray area are the games that use Wild Cards (Jokers and/or Deuces).  Are these really rule changes or paytable changes?  It really doesn't matter once you realize that both can have the same impact to our strategy.

            If I pick up a copy of Winning Strategies for Video Poker, I will find 27 different paytables JUST for jacks or better.  Admittedly, some of these paytables are pretty tough to find these days, but these paytables were considered to be the 'full-pay' paytables in a number of jurisdictions when the book was revised 15 years ago.  It purposefully left out many of the short-pay machines that are some of the most common both then and today.  There are probably 50-60 paytables in use today just for jacks or better.  

            Of course, in an ideal world, none of you reading this column would actually play any of the inferior paytables if given an opportunity to play one of the better ones, but that is not likely the reality.  Also, in order for this to happen, each of you would have to know how to determine which are the better paytables to actually play.  I'll save that for another column.

            Today's column is about understanding how the strategy changes as a result of a paytable change.  With dozens of paytables out there, each game could potentially have its own strategy.  This doesn't mean that if you bring your strategy from one game to another that you'll be committing bankroll suicide, but  you won't be helping yourself either.  In some cases, you might add another 1-2% to the house advantage by using the wrong strategy for any particular paytable.

            So, what is a Player to do?  First, you can't try to master every paytable out there.  I'm guessing there are not a lot of Experts who play regular blackjack, Spanish 21 and Blackjack Switch on a regular basis.  It is too easy to get parts of the strategy confused and then you start making mistakes.  Very quickly, 3 games each with paybacks of 99%+ become not nearly as strong for the Player.  The same is true of video poker.  After a while you're going to forget which games a 3-Card Straight Flush with 1 High Card outranks a 4-Card Inside Straight with 2 High Cards. 

            The key is to target a single game.  It should be a full-pay machine with a strong paytable.  Then, go out and learn the strategy.  Read a book.  Buy some software.  Practice at your desk.  ONLY when you have mastered the strategy should you venture out to the casino and play using real money.  Before you jump to play a different game, repeat the entire process all over again.

            

Soft Hand "Swtich"eroo

I’ve spent the last few weeks discussing some blackjack strategy. Blackjack strategies are developed the same way video poker strategies are. Using computers, we evaluate every option the player has and decide which will make the most or lose the least, as the case may be.

As in video poker, many decisions in blackjack are fairly obvious. It is the other hands, which are less obvious, that separate the beginners from the Expert Players.

One group of hands that falls in this category is the soft hands, where an Ace counts as an 11. Players have the option to double down, hit or stick on many of these hands. If you sit at a table for awhile, you’ll quickly find very few players play these hands correctly.

In regular blackjack, many of these hands create double down situations. This is because of the ability to improve the player’s hand AND the Ddaler’s likelihood of busting.

Last week, I showed how the strategy changes dramatically in Spanish 21 with the 10’s missing, and the reduced likelihood of the dealer busting. This week, I’ll take a look at what happens in Blackjack Switch where a Dealer 22 is a push.

In Blackjack Switch, the player must play two blackjack hands with equal wagers. The player then has the option to switch the second cards dealt to each hand. So, if dealt a 5-10 and a 10-6, you can turn that into a 5-6 and a 10-10 and greatly strengthen the hands. If dealt a 5-10 and a 6-10, then switching will do nothing.

The price the player pays for this option is if the dealer busts with a 22, all player hands still in action (except natural blackjacks) are pushed. This means a LARGE number of dealer busts wind up as pushes. Since we double down looking for dealer busts, this will alter our strategy greatly.

The strategy for soft hands in Blackjack Switch is rather simple. There are only FOUR times we double down. We double down on a soft 17 or soft 18 against a dealer 5 or 6. If we have a soft 17 or less and can’t double down (3-plus cards) then we hit. We stick on all soft 19’s or higher. For a soft 18, when we can’t double, we stick against an 8 or less and hit against a 9, 10 or Ace.

 Given how much doubling on soft hands adds to our payback in regular blackjack, how is it that in Blackjack Switch we can give up this benefit and still have a game that pays in the mid 99% range? It is the nature of the ability to switch that creates a bit of a paradox. We double down in far fewer situations in Blackjack Switch than regular blackjack because the Dealer Bust on 22 rule.

However, our starting hands (after the switch) are far stronger in Blackjack Switch than in regular Blackjack. In the case of soft hands, we will frequently perform a switch that will convert it from an ordinary soft hand into a 21 or a 20, leaving the other hand frequently in no worse shape.

So, while we lose the opportunity to double down on some of these soft hands, we instead gain stronger hands we don’t double down on. A 20 (hard or soft) is far preferable to a soft 17 – especially in Blackjack Switch.

While Blackjack Switch simplifies our soft hand strategy, it also adds an entire new layer of strategy by needing to know when to switch. This part of the strategy is far more important to achieving the theoretical payback than is the altered hit/stick strategy. However, I would strongly suggest you learn both!

Just as in video poker, when you change the payouts or the rules of the game, the strategy changes with it. While many of the switch decisions will be obvious, many will leave you scratching your head as to what is the better play.

Undoubtedly, there will also be times when you do the right thing and it backfires or you do the wrong thing and it works out. However, this doesn’t change what the right mathematical answer is. As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right two times a day!

To help you learn the right strategy, I’m continuing to offer our Buy 1 Get 1 Free special. Buy Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch for $6.95 and get Expert Strategy for Spanish 21 for free. Both come with pocket-sized multi-color strategy cards to bring into the casino with you. If you’d like to order, please send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.

How do you say "Soft Hand" in Spanish?

            A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the strategy regarding Soft Hands in blackjack.  Soft Hands are those that contain an Ace which is counted as an 11.  Many of these hands should be played as a double down because of both the ability to significantly improve the hand (to a 17-21) AND due to the high probability that the Dealer will bust - as we mostly double down against Dealer Upcards of 2 through 6.

            As is the case with video poker, however, we must remember that the strategy changes with every paytable change or rule change.  We find slight changes to our strategy if we go from the Dealer hitting Soft 17 to the Dealer Sticking on all 17's.  However, if we go to the Blackjack variants of Blackjack Switch or Spanish 21, everything changes.

            In Spanish 21, the 10's have been removed from the decks, so that we are playing with a shoe of 48-card decks.  As may of us know, 10's and Face cards are our friends when playing blackjack.  They enable us to make good solid hands like 20's.  They help us Double Down on 10's and 11's and get strong hands.  Most importantly, they bust any Dealer hand above an 11.  When you hear about card counters, they are keeping track of the percent of 10's/Faces in the deck.  When there are more than 'normal', the game tips more into the Player's favor.  So, taking 4 of them out of each deck is NOT to the Player's advantage.

            Spanish 21 offsets this by giving the Player a host of other advantages.  The Player can double down on any number of cards.  So, if you start with a 5-3 and hit a 3 for 11, you can still double down.  Player 21's beat Dealer 21's.  Player Blackjacks beat Dealer Blackjacks.  There are also several 'bonus' 21 hands thrown in for free.  Get three 7's and win a small bonus.  The house advantage for Spanish 21 is about 0.8% which makes it a little greater than regular blackjack, but ONLY if you learn the proper strategy.

            Some of the biggest changes occur in the Soft Hands.  Not much changes in terms of how your hand will turn out.  The biggest impact is to the Soft 17's and 18's which have less of a chance to draw a 10, but a slightly greater chance to draw the little card you need to improve the hand.  The problem is that the Dealer will Bust less often.  The Bust rate for a Dealer 6 goes from 44.6% in regular blackjack to 40.6% in Spanish 21.  The changes to the Bust rate is enough to get us to make radical changes to our Soft Hand strategy. 

            To begin with, we NEVER Double down on a Soft 13 through 15 in Spanish 21.  We simply hit these hands.  We Double Down on a Soft 16 only against a 6.  However, if we have 4 cards or more, we hit these hands (remember that you can Double on 3 cards in Spanish 21).  Since there are special payouts for 5, 6 or 7+ card 21's, the lure of these payouts is stronger than the ability to Double Down. 

            Soft 17's are Doubled Down against a Dealer 4, 5 or 6.  BUT, only if the Player has 2 cards against the 4, 3 (or less) cards against the 5 and 4 (or less) cards against the 6.  If he has more cards than the minimum, he hits the hand in search of the 5+ card 21.

            Soft 18's bring us the most opportunities to Double Down.  We stick against a 7, but will Double Down even against an 8 as long as we have 3 cards or less.  We also Double Down against a 6 (5 cards or less), a 5 (4 cards or less) or a 2 through 4 (3 cards or less).

            Essentially we throw out everything we know about Soft Hands in Blackjack if we are planning on learning how to play Spanish 21.

            Next week, I'll discuss Soft Hands in Blackjack Switch and the impact of the Push on Dealer 22 rule on our strategy.  For those that want to get a jump on learning, I'm offering a 2 for 1 deal.  Order Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch for $6.95 and get Expert Strategy for Spanish 21 for free.  Both books include a multi-color pocket-sized strategy card.  Send check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.

            

Hot Streak or Cold Streak?

          I've written many columns in the past several years about how our minds can play tricks with us regarding odd results.  We have a tendency to remember what appears to be very rare events and all but forget the routine.  The end result is that we begin to think that all that occurs are those strange occurrences.  This eventually leads many to believe that a game is either broken (if we are winning) or rigged (if we are losing).  The most likely real answer is two-fold.  First, we're not correctly remembering what actually occurred and second, most people really aren't aware as to how rare or common some event actually is.

            How much does it matter if our memories are a little faulty?  In the grand scheme of things, perhaps not much.  But, from a math perspective, it can make a great deal of difference.  Several months ago, a friend of mine relayed to me his experiences while playing Let It Ride.  He claimed that in a five-hand span he was dealt a Four of a Kind, a Full House, a Straight and TWO Three of a Kinds.  He must have been able to read the expression on my face as he kept telling me that it "REALLY" happened.  I was a bit skeptical. 

            When I got to my computer I did some computations and discovered that the odds of being dealt those 5 hands in a row (in any order) was about 27 BILLION to 1.  Okay, I wouldn't call it impossible, but I wouldn't call it very likely.  But, what if his memory was a little flawed?  What if he was dealt those 5 hands in a block of 10 hands?  What if his memory just 'forgot' about the five losing hands?  In this case, the odds would drop to a 'mere' 492 MILLION to 1.  At least we're back down into Lotto territory.  So, did my friend get these 5 power hands in 5 deals?  10 deals?  20 deals?  I have no clue. 

            This past week, I had the opportunity to do my own research.  Family is visiting from out of town, which usually means I'm playing in the casino a bit more often.  On one evening, I sat down at a five-play machine.  In the first 31 hands, I was dealt 5 Three of a Kinds (on the first 5 cards).  I know these numbers to be true not because I sit there and count how many hands I've played, but rather I was able to see the point counter on the machine and specifically took notice of how many hands I had played after being dealt my 5th Trips. 

            This made me wonder about just how rare is it to be dealt 5 Three of a Kinds in 31 hands.  So, when I got home and went to work on the calculation.  Before you read any further, I'd like you think about this and come up with how often you think this happens?  1 in 100? 1 in 1000? 1 in a million?  This is one of the cases where I think many people would guess rather wrong if they don't know how to do the actual math.  Until I did the calculation, I didn't really know what to expect.  I knew it wasn't astronomical, but I figured it was a bit more rare than it turned out to be.  In the end, the number was 562.  The odds of having 5 Trips in 31 hands is in the same ballpark as the odds of being dealt a Flush on the deal.  It didn't seem like such an odd occurrence anymore, but at the time, I figured the machine was on fire.

            Of course, I didn't draw a single Four of a Kind out of any of these hands.  Five times I had five chances to get those Quads and I couldn't hit a single one.  So, maybe the machine was actually cold, not hot.  How cold was the machine that I couldn't hit a single Four of a Kind from my 5 Trips?  In reality, not at all.  I had an 80% chance of not hitting any Four of a Kinds from these trips.  So had I actually hit one (or more), it would've have been the more rare occurrence.

            There are many things to take away from this column.  One is that it is hard to rely on anecdotal stories.  If you didn't witness the event yourself, you don't even know if the story is true.  And, even if you did witness it yourself, we necessary learn a lot because once upon a time something rare happened.  We need to look at all the stories everywhere in order to learn what to expect.  This is best done by computer programs and computer simulations.  From this, we learn that virtually everything that happens when we play in a casino is just part of the normal ups and downs that happen 'randomly'.

What to Do When Your Hand Goes Soft

            I'm going to continue talking about blackjack this week.  No, I'm certainly not giving up on video poker!  Blackjack is very similar to video poker in that they both require learning rather complex strategies in order to achieve a strong payback.  However, blackjack has the advantage, in my opinion, in that it is a bit easier to learn the strategy.  Recognizing hands in video poker can sometimes be tricky for the beginners.  But, with blackjack a 16 is a 16.  Well, sort of.

            You can actually have 3 different types of 16's.  The first is a Pair of 8's.  For this, we use Pair Strategy.  The second is a Hard 16, where there is no Ace counting as an 11 involved in the hand.  For this, we use our Hard hand strategy.  Lastly, there is a Soft 16, where the hand contains an Ace being used as an 11.  This hand cannot bust by hitting one additional card, so the strategy is quite different from a Hard 16.  For these, we use our Soft hand strategies.

            It is these Soft hands that I would like to focus on today.  Hard strategies are pretty well known.  Don't hit anything above a 16.  Don't hit most Hard hands between 12 and 16 unless the Dealer has a 7 through Ace showing.  There are a few exceptions with 12 and 13, but if you just followed what I wrote, you'll do okay.  But, when it comes to Soft hands, people do all sorts of things - many of them quite wrong.  We've all even seen a few people try to stop on a Soft low hand.  Which card could you draw that will make your Soft 16 more likely to lose as compared to staying put?

            The reason why learning Soft Hand strategy is so important is because these hands afford us the most opportunities to Double Down.  We Double Down for two reasons.  The first is that we have a strong hand (i.e. 10's and 11's) that is likely to get stronger with a single card.  The second is that we have a good hand and the likelihood is strong that the Dealer will bust.   

            When we have a Soft Hand, we have usually have at least 5 chances to make the hand better to the point where it matters - that is to say, wind up with a hand between 17 and 21.  If you can only hit one card and you hit a 13 and it becomes a 15, you really haven't done anything for your hand - positive or negative.  Quite frankly if you hit a Soft 16 and it become a Hard 12, you haven't done anything negative to your hand either.  So, when we Double Down on a Soft hand, we have a hand that MIGHT improve and we look to do this when the Dealer is likely to Bust.

            That last part tells us the first critical part of Soft Hand strategy - we NEVER Double Down when the Dealer has a 7 through Ace up with a Soft Hand.  The likelihood of the Dealer busting is not strong enough to make it worth Doubling Down.

            Next, you need to understand that when you Double Down, you are actually REDUCING your chances of winning the hand, while INCREASING how much you will win when you do.  So, imagine if an identical opportunity came up 100 times.  If you don't Double Down, you will win 75% of the time.  If you do Double Down you will win only 65% of the time.  Which would you want to do?  Well, if you don't Double Down, you will wager 100 and win back 150 for a net win of 50.  If you do Double Down, you will wager 200 and win 260 for a net win of 60.  If you want to win more, you Double Down even though you will win less often.

            As is the case with video poker, you don't have to do any amazing calculations on the fly to figure out what the right strategy is.  Someone like myself, with the help of some computer programs has already done all the hard work.  That is, unless you consider memorizing the strategy tables to be the hard work!

            There are some slight variations in strategy depending on whether the Dealer hits or sticks on a Soft 17.  What is presented here is for the cases where the Dealer does NOT hit a Soft 17.

• ·         Double Down with a Soft 13 or Soft 14 against a Dealer 5 or 6 Upcard. 
• ·         Double Down with a Soft 15 or Soft 16 against a Dealer 4, 5, or 6 Upcard. 
• ·         Double Down with a Soft 17 or Soft 18 against a Dealer 3, 4, 5, or 6 Upcard.

            If you have a Soft Hand that is more than 2 cards so that you can no longer Double Down, you Hit ALL Soft 12 - Soft 17 and Hit a Soft 18 against a Dealer 9, 10 or Ace Upcard.

            Yes, there will be times you will turn a Soft 18 into a Hard 16 and begin to wonder if you made the right move.  But, in these cases, don't just look at YOUR hand, look at the Dealer's.  If he turns over a 10/Face to wind up with 19 or 20, staying put on your 18 would still result in losing.

            Next week, I'll explain a bit more why I like to use Blackjack as a sort of training tool as we see how the strategy I've covered today might change if you were playing a Blackjack variant, such as Spanish 21 or Blackjack Switch.

Surrender and Insurance

            As I’ve described many times, the concepts of Expert Strategy apply to more than just video poker.  Essentially, they apply to every game in the casino (except slots of course).  You should always know which games to play, what strategy to play them with and what to expect.  Most games in the casino do not require learning very significant strategies to play them properly.  Two that do – video poker and blackjack (and its variants Blackjack Switch and Spanish 21 – require some serious effort to learn them correctly.  The reward for doing so is a payback that is above 99.5%.

            In order to achieve the theoretical payback, you have to learn ALL of the strategy including the less well-known parts and even the parts we might find ‘offensive.’  For blackjack this would be the concepts of insurance and surrender.  The idea of ‘surrender’ is the one that you may find to be ‘offensive’, but there are times it is the right play.

            First let’s begin with the definition of the Insurance bet.  When the Dealer has an Ace up, he will offer everyone at the table the option to make an Insurance wager (which must be ½ of your base blackjack wager).  In reality, it is nothing more than a proposition bet.  If the Dealer has a blackjack, then you win 2 to 1.  If he doesn’t you lose your Insurance wager.  Assuming you have not been counting cards, then the odds of the Dealer having Blackjack is roughly 4 out of 13 (I’m ignoring his upcard ‘Ace’ and any of the cards you can see).  Paying 2 to 1, gets us back 12 out of every 13 units wagered for a payback of about 92.31%.  Obviously, you can do some light card counting and only make this wager when it is more in your favor, but it will take a lot of non-10s/Faces to turn the deck in your favor.

            Sometimes you will hear a Player who has a Blackjack to ask for ‘even money’ when the Dealer has a Blackjack.  This is really the equivalent of the Player making the Insurance wager.  If he makes it and the Dealer does NOT have Blackjack he will win 3 for 2 on his base wager, but would have lost 1/2 unit on Insurance leaving him having won even money.  If the Dealer DOES have blackjack, he pushes his blackjack wager and wins his Insurance wager, which will pay 2 to 1 of the INSURANCE wager which is equal to his base wager – in other words, even money on the base wager.  To keep things moving along, most casinos will just allow the Player to call “even money” and get paid 1 to 1 on his blackjack wager. 

            In reality, this is no better a decision than making the Insurance wager under any other situation.  However, from an emotional standpoint, many Players hate the idea of a total push when getting a Blackjack.  This would be the outcome if you don’t take the Insurance Wager AND the Dealer has Blackjack.  The proper play is to stay unemotional and never take even money.  This situation should only occur about 1 in 275 hands (approximately) which would mean once every 9 hours of play.  For some strange reason, I seem to get it about 3 times an hour?!

            Next up is the Surrender rule.  Many of you may never have heard of it.  The casinos don’t really advertise it much.  You have the right to Surrender your hand before you take any other action by forfeiting half of your initial wager.  Once you hit, split, double down, etc… you can no longer Surrender your hand.  There are two different variations of Surrenders.  The first called Early Surrender is rarely offered.  It allows you to Surrender BEFORE the Dealer checks for a Blackjack when he has a 10/Face or an Ace up.  Thus, even if the Dealer has a Blackjack, you would have forfeited only half of your wager.  This is a big advantage to the Player which explains its rarity.  The other variation is called Late Surrender.  This version has the Dealer checking for Blackjack and only after it is confirmed that he does NOT have one can the Player opt to Surrender.

            Unlike the Insurance Wager, this is not a proposition wager better left ignored.  If that were the case, the casino would have it on the felt in big bold letters “PLEASE SURRENDER!”  Instead it is an option you need to take on occasion and you almost have to ask the casino permission to do so.  From a mathematical perspective, the decision is easy.  If you are going to win less than 25% of the time with your starting two cards, you Surrender.  At a 25%, you would win back exactly half of your initial wager which is what you’ll have left after Surrendering.  Hence, that is why this is the decision point.  There are slightly different strategies depending on whether the Dealer hits or sticks on  Soft 17. 

            You should always Surrender a Hard 16 to a Dealer 9, 10 or Ace.  You should also always Surrender a Hard 15 to a Dealer 10.  If the Dealer hits a Soft 17, you also Surrender a Hard 15 to a Dealer Ace and a Hard 17 (yes, I said 17) to a Dealer Ace.  If the Dealer has a 6 underneath, he gets to keep going and is that much more likely to wind up beating you.   These rules apply to larger shoes of 4-8 decks. 

            The impact of properly Surrendering is that the payback is increased by 0.07%.  This may not sound like a lot, but looked at differently, it can cut the house edge by about 15%.